Asia-Pacific international visitor arrivals are set to surpass pre‑pandemic levels from 2026, but the outlook is sharply split. The Pacific Asia Travel Association’s baseline forecast projects 761.2 million arrivals by 2028; its lower‑bound scenario, which accounts for geopolitical shocks and climate disruptions, expects just 599.7 million — about 88% of 2019 volumes.
Only 27 of the 39 destinations studied will comfortably beat their 2019 numbers. The rest could stay smaller — and the gap between the two outlooks determines whether the region’s tourism economy can absorb the next crisis.
The headline forecast says Asia‑Pacific tourism is back. The scenario that actually matters says something else. By 2028, arrivals could stall at 599.7 million — equivalent to just 88 per cent of what the region handled in 2019.
Noor Ahmad Hamid, CEO of PATA, puts it bluntly: “International tourism is entering a more complex phase where growth continues, but under increasing pressure.”
Geopolitical rifts, extreme weather, and airline capacity decisions pull in different directions. The model cannot choose — it just lays out both paths. For anyone holding a flight booking or a hotel investment, the question is the same: which forecast will prove right by the time you travel?
A 160‑million‑visitor gap that alters every plan
PATA’s forecast report, covering 39 economies, lays out two trajectories. The baseline scenario — built on moderate economic growth and no major disruptions — sees arrivals climb from 2026 onward and hit 761.2 million by 2028. The lower‑bound scenario pushes that number down to 599.7 million. In that world, 12 of the 39 destinations still trail their 2019 tallies.
Haiyan Song, chair professor of tourism at the Hong Kong Polytechnic University, notes the numbers capture both the pace of recovery and deeper structural changes in the travel economy — shifting source markets, different booking habits, new airline networks. The result is an uneven landscape in which Mongolia, Japan, Chile, the Maldives and Sri Lanka could top 150 per cent of their 2019 volumes, while others struggle.
For Western travellers, the practical picture is already clearer than the macro models. Japan remains visa‑exempt for US, EU, Canadian, Australian and New Zealand passport holders — up to 90 days, according to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Maldives grants a free 30‑day visa on arrival to all nationalities. Both policies stay in place, but entry rules can change without notice; checking official pages before booking is no longer optional.
| Metric | Figure | Source | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2028 baseline arrivals | 761.2 million | PATA | 2024 |
| 2028 lower‑bound arrivals | 599.7 million | PATA | 2024 |
| Lower‑bound as % of 2019 | 88% | PATA | 2024 |
| Destinations exceeding 2019 | 27 of 39 | PATA | 2024 |
| Global tourism recovery in 2023 | 97% of 2019 | UN Tourism | Jan 2024 |
The forecasts are snapshots, not prophecies. A single geopolitical flare‑up or a capacity crunch can rewrite the numbers within a quarter. Noor Ahmad Hamid warns that growth “is not linear or guaranteed” — the region must be ready for multiple scenarios. The difference between the two outlooks — 161.5 million visitors — is the real number to watch.
What the models cannot see
The forecast’s lower path is not academic. If arrivals track closer to 599.7 million, airline capacity and hotel investment will follow. Already, UN Tourism data shows global recovery reached 97 per cent of 2019 levels by 2023, but Asia‑Pacific’s uneven bounceback means some spots are already crowded while others wait.
PATA’s next annual update — expected later this year — will show whether the region is absorbing geopolitical and climate pressure or drifting toward the lower bound. Monthly air‑traffic stats from IATA will flag the first sign of trouble: if seat‑capacity growth flatlines, the 2028 numbers will need a hard reset.
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