Power
The world’s next decade is being decided in rooms most Western readers never see. These are the elections, alliances, and military standoffs across Asia-Pacific — and what each one costs the West.
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Jul- 2026 -10 July
China’s missile test splits its closest Pacific ally
The Solomon Islands joined a dozen Pacific nations in protesting Beijing's July 6 JL-3 submarine-launched ballistic missile test, exposing fractures in China's aid-for-silence strategy across the region.
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10 July
Iran’s succession crisis just killed the ceasefire with missiles
The U.S. struck Iranian air defenses on July 9; Iran retaliated with missiles and drones across Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and Jordan, collapsing a month-old agreement and sending Brent crude up…
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10 July
Panetta warns US risks forever war over Hormuz control
The former CIA director says the administration's implicit strategy—seizing the Strait of Hormuz to guarantee a ceasefire with Iran—would require sustained military operations with no clear endpoint and casualties the…
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9 July
US strikes near Iran’s nuclear plant with no diplomatic off-ramp
The second wave of strikes hit Bushehr province on July 8, where Iran's only operating reactor sits 200 kilometres from the Strait of Hormuz, prompting Tehran to threaten massive retaliation…
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8 July
US strikes collapse Iran ceasefire in three weeks
On July 7, US Central Command launched retaliatory strikes against Iranian military targets after three commercial vessels were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, effectively ending the Islamabad memorandum signed…
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6 July
American pilot killed in Papua. Washington now has leverage.
A US citizen died on 5 July when separatist fighters shot down his aircraft in Indonesia's Yahukimo district, forcing Washington to signal accountability and shifting the conflict into diplomatic territory.
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Jun- 2026 -30 June
China turned a Gulf crisis into a decade-long advantage
By stockpiling 104 days of crude and installing 315 gigawatts of solar in 2025, Beijing absorbed the Strait of Hormuz shock that devastated its neighbours.
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30 June
Trump announced Iran talks. Tehran said they’re not happening.
The gap between Washington's confirmation and Tehran's denial on June 29 signals a de-escalation channel losing credibility before it can deliver on sanctions relief or maritime access.
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29 June
China wins the Gulf crisis without firing a shot
An unconfirmed US-Iran deal leaves the Strait of Hormuz unsettled, but Beijing's 65-day strategic oil reserve gives it an advantage no regional rival can match.
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28 June
Iran’s third strike day tests a ceasefire that was never meant to last
The Revolutionary Guard claims attacks on eight U.S. facilities in Kuwait and Bahrain, while announcing new Strait of Hormuz inspections that could choke a fifth of global seaborne oil.
